22-year intrinsic value estimate vs. market capitalization · Year-end data
Backtest multiple10.5×DTL on unrealized gains75%75% of statutory
SOTP Valuation vs. Market Capitalization
SOTP ValuationMarket Cap
Premium / Discount to SOTP
Discount (undervalued)Premium (overvalued)
Stock CAGR (2004–25)
+10.5%
Avg. Premium/Discount
+0.0%
Years Undervalued
13 of 22
Max Discount
-18.4% ('05)
Max Premium
+30.4% ('17)
SOTP Components, $ Billions
Year
Op. Earn.
Op. Biz @ 10.5×
Cash & T-Bills
HoldCo Debt
Net Cash
Eq. MV
DTL @ 75%
Eq. Net of DTL
SOTP
Mkt Cap
Prem / Disc
2004
7.3
76.6
43.4
(5.2)
38.2
37.7
(3.5)
34.2
149.1
135.0
-9.4%
2005
8.5
89.3
44.3
(6.1)
38.2
46.7
(6.3)
40.4
167.9
137.0
-18.4%
2006
11.0
115.5
43.7
(8.5)
35.2
61.5
(10.2)
51.3
202.0
170.0
-15.8%
2007
10.6
111.3
44.3
(12.1)
32.2
74.6
(13.0)
61.6
205.1
219.0
+6.8%
2008
10.3
108.2
25.5
(15.4)
10.1
49.1
(5.8)
43.3
161.6
150.0
-7.2%
2009
8.5
89.3
30.6
(17.3)
13.3
59.0
(6.4)
52.6
155.1
155.0
-0.1%
2010
12.1
127.0
38.2
(18.0)
20.2
67.6
(8.5)
59.1
206.4
199.0
-3.6%
2011
10.3
108.2
37.3
(19.5)
17.8
66.5
(6.0)
60.5
186.5
191.0
+2.4%
2012
12.6
132.3
46.8
(20.0)
26.8
87.7
(9.9)
77.8
236.9
222.0
-6.3%
2013
15.1
158.5
48.2
(22.0)
26.2
117.5
(16.1)
101.4
286.2
292.0
+2.0%
2014
16.5
173.3
63.3
(23.0)
40.3
117.5
(15.9)
101.6
315.1
370.0
+17.4%
2015
17.4
182.7
71.7
(28.0)
43.7
112.3
(14.2)
98.1
324.5
326.0
+0.5%
2016
17.6
184.8
86.4
(34.0)
52.4
122.0
(16.2)
105.8
343.0
401.0
+16.9%
2017
14.5
152.3
116.0
(38.0)
78.0
170.5
(25.8)
144.7
375.0
489.0
+30.4%
2018
24.8
260.4
112.0
(39.0)
73.0
172.8
(11.0)
161.8
495.2
500.0
+1.0%
2019
23.9
250.9
128.0
(42.0)
86.0
248.0
(21.7)
226.3
563.3
553.0
-1.8%
2020
21.9
229.9
138.3
(45.0)
93.3
281.2
(27.0)
254.2
577.4
530.0
-8.2%
2021
27.5
288.8
146.7
(48.0)
98.7
331.0
(35.7)
295.3
682.8
672.0
-1.6%
2022
30.9
324.4
128.6
(46.0)
82.6
308.8
(31.5)
277.3
684.3
669.0
-2.2%
2023
37.4
392.7
167.6
(50.0)
117.6
354.0
(36.9)
317.1
827.4
788.0
-4.8%
2024
47.4
497.7
334.2
(48.0)
286.2
272.0
(31.3)
240.7
1,024.6
992.0
-3.2%
2025
44.5
467.3
373.3
(50.0)
323.3
274.0
(33.7)
240.3
1,030.8
1,089
+5.6%
Current SOTP. Top 5 holdings marked to market at live prices; remainder proxied by S&P 500 return (+17.0%) since filing date. Net cash = parent cash/T-bills less unsettled purchases & HoldCo borrowings (excl. subsidiary non-recourse debt). Earnings multiple: 10.5×. DTL: 75% of 23% base rate = 17.3% effective.
Historical backtest. SOTP = (After-tax operating earnings × 10.5) + Net Cash + Equity portfolio net of DTL. Net Cash = Cash & T-Bills − HoldCo/BHFC/Insurance borrowings. Subsidiary operating debt (BNSF, BHE) excluded. DTL: 75% of statutory rate (35% pre-2018, 21% post-2018).
DTL philosophy. At 100% = full tax haircut (conservative institutional approach). At 0% = no DTL (Buffett's "interest-free loan" view). Current and historical sliders are independent to allow different assumptions across time horizons.
Sources. Berkshire annual reports, 10-K filings, press releases. HoldCo debt approximate. All inputs editable via ⚙ Edit panel. Not investment advice.